We are continuing to keep an eye on an area of low pressure located in the southern Atlantic, showing signs of potentially developing into a tropical depression in the days ahead. There is currently a high Chance (70%) of seeing development in the next 48 hours and next five days as well.
As of right now the area of low pressure is located just nine degrees north of the equator and is sitting at about 44.7 degrees west Longitude. Its current movement is towards the west at about 17 miles per hour with sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour with wind gusts reaching 45 miles per hour.
Nine degrees north is close to the equator but we can still see development of rotation in the days ahead. Anything closer than three degrees will not see enough rotation to form into a tropical depression due to the lack of the Coriolis Effect (A force that causes air and liquids to curve a certain direction during travel due to the rotation of the earth) near the equator.
More on Coriolis Effect Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2mec3vgeaI
As the area of low pressure continues to move northward a bit, we may see more rotation and organization develop with these storms.
In terms of direction, spaghetti plots have the area of low pressure switching to more of a West-Northwest movement, heading towards San Juan, Puerto Rico then passing north of the Dominican Republic. It looks as though the system will continue to curve right, avoiding the Florida coast and remaining in the Atlantic for the remainder of its life span. These are just my initial thoughts, being that it is still too early to know for sure.
As the area of low pressure continues to push west, sea surface temperatures will continue to be favorable for tropical development. Temperatures would need to be at least 81 degrees Fahrenheit to accommodate a tropical environment. We are current seeing temperatures close to 83 degrees.
Another factor would be wind Shear. Low wind shear allows the storm to remain "Vertically Staked" and continue to organize. Higher wind shear can disorganize any tropical development and prevent a storm from intensifying.
As the area of low pressure moves to the east, there will be a few locations of moderate to high wind shear, which can hinder strong development in the days ahead. This is where the track of the low can play a big role as there seems to be quite a bit of wind shear just south of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
As we continue to watch for development in the days ahead, we will likely learn more about how organized these storms may become, get a better grip as to where they will be headed and most importantly, find out if it will affect the Carolinas. Keep it locked with Fox Carolina for the latest on Invest 93L!