4:44 Update: Wow! What a day. The great weather we've enjoyed thus far will carry into the evening with partly sunny skies and readings in the upper-70s by dinner time. And, another quiet, comfortable night will come with lows in the upper-50s and low-60s…enjoy! I'll have a complete update/discussion revamp later tonight.
Carpe diem: within a month, kids will be going back to school and the whole routine will begin again, where our schedules are further from our control than they have been for the last several weeks, courtesy of school, extra-curricular activities, sports and everything else that starts in the fall…we've got a nice day in the forecast and I hope you plan to use it! After 50s in most towns in the morning, highs will reach into the lower and middle-80s again an almost all corners of the state, except for the higher terrain where highs will be in the upper-70s. We'll enjoy sunshine, a light breeze and comfortable humidity levels.
Tonight will offer another good opportunity for celestial viewing. Although there will still be bright light from the waning Sturgeon supermoon, the "Perseid" meteor shower will be ongoing tonight and should still make a show. A yearly event that peaks around August 11-12, this meteor shower is knows as one of the better annual shows, sometimes averaging up to 100 shooting stars per hour.
Slightly more humidity may start to creep into the state Monday. Although high pressure will remain in general control, some models are suggesting that a weak lobe of energy may spin off an upper level low centered over the Canadian Maritimes and interact with the slightly more humid air, forming a few isolated showers. Although the highest concentration of these will likely be northeast of Connecticut, such as in the Worcester Hills of Massachusetts and Monadnock Region of New Hampshire, a few towns in eastern-most Connecticut may not escape an isolated shower Monday afternoon or evening. The vast majority of us, including in greater Hartford and points west, will have another nice day, with highs in the 80s and partly sunny skies after a clear and mild start at around 60 degrees in the morning.
If you feel left out Monday, your chance for rain will start to come Tuesday and last through most of Wednesday. The first half or two-thirds of the day will be rain-free. Enough dry weather and limited sun will help to get temperatures into the upper-70s, if not a few locales in the low-80s. But, all the while a storm system will have been coming into New England from the southwest, causing the sky to get cloudier and cloudier by the hour. The first part of the storm will bring a general rainfall that will break out from southwest to northeast across the state during the early or mid-afternoon Tuesday – likely in time for the evening rush hour. The cause of this batch of general rainfall will be an approaching warm front the will act to lift moisture into a shield of rain-making clouds. We could see several hours of a moderate rain from this batch of precipitation, lasting through at least midnight.
The warm front will pass through the area sometime in the early morning Wednesday. Muggy and warm conditions will come, with readings in the 60s. As is often the case with warm fronts, there may be patchy fog in some areas during the morning, as well, particularly just before the front moves through the state. Once the front has passed, the air will get even muggier and, although the clouds will stand strong, there could be a few moments when hazy sun breaks though these clouds. Any sunshine or heating of any sort will NOT be good news for those people who would like to avoid stronger thunderstorms. The models put us fairly close to the storm's central area of low pressure. The models also project a fair amount of instability for several hours during the late morning and early afternoon. These ingredients, plus adequate shear (which is increasing wind speed and changes in wind direction at increasingly higher altitudes), could be enough to touch off stronger storms during the midday hours. The track of the storm is critical with this forecast: any deviation to the south would mean a much more stable situation midday Wednesday, giving us just general rains without the strong thunderstorm component. Either way, the main rain threat will exit Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the state, essentially wiping the rains off the map. By this point, many parts of the state will have received 1"-2" of rain.
Better weather will slowly seep into the region Thursday. Behind the front, drier, breezier conditions will develop. As is often the case, the corresponding "upper level low" may give us periods of cloudiness Thursday, even though the front has cleared and the air feels drier. We may even have a few showers race through from the northwest. We still think there will be enough sunshine to push the mercury to close to 80 degrees. By Friday and Saturday, the weather will completely settle out. A fair distribution of sunshine and clouds and readings around 80 degrees by day, 60 degrees by night will make for a nice beginning to next weekend.
Have an awesome weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
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