Technical Discussion: From Calm to Unsettled - Live5News.com | Charleston, SC | News, Weather, Sports




What a GORGEOUS weekend across Connecticut, 85 Saturday and 87 Sunday at Windsor Locks where the records are kept with relatively low humidity! While today will feature a continuation of similar weather, we do trend unsettled through the middle part of the week.

Today will be nice for most of us, with more sunshine and highs in the mid-80s. The only blemish is the slightest possibility of an isolated shower, mainly over eastern CT. Although high pressure will remain in general control, some models are suggesting that a weak lobe of energy may spin off an upper level low centered over the Canadian Maritimes and interact with the slightly more humid air, forming a few isolated showers.

Now many are hoping for rain as we're running a bit of a deficit for the month so far. The chances for rain will start to come Tuesday and last through most of Wednesday. A general rainfall will break out from southwest to northeast across the state during the early or mid-afternoon Tuesday – likely in time for the evening rush hour. The warm front responsible for the rain will stay south of the state through midnight, ensuring several hours of those general rains.

The evolution of possibly strong thunderstorms still looks to be a real possibility Wednesday. The warm front will pass through the area sometime in the early morning Wednesday. Muggy and warm conditions will come, with readings in the 60s. As is often the case with warm fronts, there may be patchy fog in some areas during the morning, as well, particularly just before the front moves through the state. Once the front has passed, the air will get even muggier and, although the clouds will stand strong, there could be a few moments when hazy sun breaks though these clouds. Any sunshine or heating of any sort will NOT be good news for those people who would like to avoid stronger thunderstorms. Even without sun, the models are still suggesting plenty of instability and put us fairly close to the storm's central area of low pressure during the midday hours. These ingredients, plus adequate shear (which is increasing wind speed and changes in wind direction at increasingly higher altitudes), could be enough to touch off stronger storms during the late morning and early afternoon. In addition to heavy rain and flash flooding concerns, isolated instances of strong, damaging wind may also occur. There may even be enough low-level turning of the wind that we will be watching out for the possibility of a weak spin-up tornado, similar to the one we witnessed in Wolcott several weeks back. The track of the storm is critical with this forecast: any deviation to the south would mean a much more stable situation midday Wednesday, giving us just general rains without the strong thunderstorm component. Either way, the main rain threat will exit Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the state, essentially wiping the rains off the map. By this point, many parts of the state will have received 1"-2" of rain.

Better weather will slowly seep into the region Thursday. Behind the front, drier, breezier conditions will develop. As is often the case, the corresponding "upper level low" may give us periods of cloudiness Thursday, even though the front has cleared and the air feels drier. We may even have a few showers race through from the northwest. We still think there will be enough sunshine to push the mercury to close to 80 degrees. By Friday and Saturday, the weather will completely settle out. A fair distribution of sunshine and clouds and readings around 80 degrees by day, 60 degrees by night will make for a nice beginning to next weekend. The air will turn a little warmer Sunday, with highs into the 80s while the sky remains partly cloudy.


Make it a great day!


Meteorologists Mark Dixon and Mike Cameron


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