***A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for all of Connecticut from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon***
Early this morning we had limited sunshine, making for a gorgeous start to the day with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. While the morning commute was dry, the evening commute will feature scattered showers. A southerly flow will increase the humidity but temperatures today with only peak between 75 and 80 degrees.
A potent storm system will take aim on the region over the next 24-36 hours. The main event will come tonight and tomorrow, that's when we can expect the heaviest rain to fall. There are several concerns with this storm system. First, there is the potential for flash flooding with 1-3" of rain expected, perhaps even higher amounts in some locations as a strong low level jet stream will transport an unusually high amount moisture into New England. Another concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. A lot depends on the exact track of the low pressure center and the position of is associated warm front. If the storm passes to the east of Long Island, the air over Southern New England will be more stable and the risk of severe storms will be lower. However, a storm track close to or directly over Southern New England would bring winds of varying directions into the region. The combination of strong shear and a very low cloud base could cause some storms to rotate. Thus, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out somewhere in Southern New England on Wednesday. Yet another concern is the potential for minor coastal flooding. Actually, minor flooding could occur as early as tonight in the most prone locations of coastal Fairfield and New Haven Counties and because of this a Coastal Flood Advisory has been posted. The possibility is compliments of the high tide cycle, the full moon and the onshore wind flow.
Conditions will quickly improve Wednesday night as the stormy weather shifts to the northeast of Connecticut. A drier northwesterly flow will develop and humidity levels will drop off nicely. The dry air will set us up for a nice end to the work-week. Thursday will feature a partly sunny sky, a nice breeze, low humidity, and highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. The mercury with then dip into the 50s Thursday night. Friday will be a lot like Thursday, although there may be a few more clouds and only slightly cooler temperatures.
Temperatures will rise back into the 80s over the weekend, perhaps the mid and upper 80s by Sunday afternoon. At this point, it looks like Saturday will be dry, but there are some indications a few showers and thunderstorms could develop on Sunday.
Meteorologists Mark Dixon and Bruce DePrest
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