***A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for all of Connecticut from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon/evening. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for coastal sections of Fairfield and New Haven Counties from 11pm***
A potent storm system is heading toward Southern New England and it will have a major impact on our Wednesday. Flash flooding is the biggest concern, but there also the potential for a few strong or severe thunderstorms. We'll have scattered showers in the state this evening, but the main event will come late tonight and tomorrow. The rain is really going to ramp up during the morning commute. Heavy downpours will make for some very tricky driving in parts of the state, so you may want to give yourself some extra time.
Rain will fall heavily at times throughout the day, perhaps at the rate of 1 to 2" per hour in some of the heftier downpours. The rain will begin to wind down during the evening hours. Rainfall totals will range from 1-3", but even higher amounts are possible in some locations!
Another concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. A lot depends on the exact track of the low pressure center and the position of the associated warm front. If the storm passes to the south and east of Long Island, the air over Southern New England will be more stable and the risk of severe storms will be lower. However, a storm track close to or directly over Southern New England would bring winds of varying directions into the region. The combination of strong shear, a very low cloud base, and very high humidity in the warm sector could cause some storms to rotate. Thus, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out somewhere in Southern New England. According to the latest computer guidance models, the storm center will track very close to the coast of Southern New England.
Yet another concern is the potential for coastal flooding along coastal sections of Fairfield and New Haven Counties. Minor flooding is expected at the time of high tide tonight. High tide in Bridgeport will occur at 1:30 Wednesday morning. Coastal flooding is anticipated since we already have astronomically high tides in addition to a persistent onshore flow.
Conditions will quickly improve Wednesday night as the stormy weather shifts to the east of Connecticut. A dry northwesterly flow will develop and humidity levels will drop off nicely. The dry air will set us up for very comfortable end to the work-week. Thursday will feature a partly sunny sky, a nice breeze, low humidity, and highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. The mercury with then dip into the 50s Thursday night with some upper 40s possible in the normal cooler spots. On Friday, we can expect a hint of September with highs only in the mid to upper 70s! It'll be a nice looking day with blend of sunshine and clouds. The humidity will remain very low.
Summer will make a comeback over the weekend. Temperatures will rise back into the 80s with Sunday likely the warmest day. Saturday will be the better of the 2 weekend days for outdoor activities since mostly sunny skies are expected. A light southwesterly breeze will develop. By Sunday, a weak cold front will settle into Southern New England. Thus, there will be a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms. It'll be seasonably warm and the humidity will be noticeably higher.
Weather conditions should settle down early next week, but not for long. Monday should be dry and warm, but more rain is in the forecast for Tuesday as yet another storm system takes aim at the Northeast.
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