Technical Discussion: cloudy spells, showers - Live5News.com | Charleston, SC | News, Weather, Sports

Today won't be so bad.  Although the sky will be covered with clouds during parts of the day, it won't be completely cloudy.  There is a slim chance for an isolated shower, but there is a far greater likelihood you'll experience dry weather.  So, unless catastrophe would result from even just the slightest of one drop of rain, you should keep your outdoor plans since most of the state at any one time will be dry. More of the sky will be cloudy than sunny during the morning and readings will remain in the 60s and low-70s so long as the clouds persist. 


There should be some improvement during the afternoon.  Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible, the trend will be for drying and for the sun to make more of an appearance.  Temperatures will respond accordingly, at least reaching into the middle and upper-70s.  If the sun comes out early enough, low-80s are within striking distance – our forecast of low-80s in greater Hartford and New Haven hinges on there being an earlier break in the cloud cover, such as 2:00 or 3:00 PM.


Great weather will come Monday as a cell of high pressure builds into the atmosphere overhead Monday.  From lows near 60°F in the morning, partly to mostly sunny skies will help send readings into the low-80s during the afternoon.  The humidity will remain low enough to consider the day comfortable by summer standards.


Monday's good weather may not last into Tuesday.  The high pressure cell that brought great weather will try to hold onto its dominance, but it may not be completely successful.  A coastal storm will be moving by, mainly to the south of New England.  The high pressure cell won't be strong enough, however, to stave it off entirely, so we are expecting there to be overcast skies and a few rain showers near Long Island Sound.  Highs will manage to make it to near 80° anyway, as there will be some sunshine mixed in with the clouds.


Wednesday will be nice, with partly sunny skies and warm readings – low to middle-80s, thanks to high pressure.  An upper-level low pressure area will be moving overhead Thursday and weakening at the same time.  The latest thinking on its effect will be to build a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon sky after a mainly sunny morning, especially if highs go into the lower-80s, as we expect.  This heating will be just enough to send parcels of air high into the sky, building a few thunderheads.


Regarding Friday and Saturday, I am rather undecided right now.  Some model runs depict good weather under high pressure, with seasonable temperatures (highs in the low-80s, lows around 60°).  One well-trusted model forecasts another coastal storm, with a more direct path right into New England.  If this latter scenario were to play our, next Saturday would be particularly wet.  For now, I have erred on the side of caution and gone with "persistence" by keeping the forecast dry.  Please know that the confidence in this forecast is lower than usual; here may be some retooling of the forecast for Friday and Saturday…stay tuned! 


Enjoy the rest of your weekend!



Meteorologist Mike Cameron



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