CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) - One of two tropical disturbances has a slightly better chance of developing within the next five days, forecasters say.
But it's the other that has a slightly better chance of heading toward the eastern seaboard, according to Live 5 forecaster Jordan Wilkerson.
"It's still far too early to say at this point," she says.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a strong tropical wave, Invest 90-L, over the central Caribbean Sea that is producing showers and thunderstorms. They now say there is a 70 percent chance the wave will form into a tropical depression within the next five days and a 50 percent chance within the next 48 hours.
The wave is moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday, meteorologists say.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon if necessary.
The second disturbance, Invest 99-L, an elongated area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a bit better organized during the past 24 hours.
While some additional slow development is possible during the next two to three days before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions during the middle part of next week.
Computer models mostly have the system missing the United States so far.
"Most of the consensus has it going over the Caribbean," Wilkerson says. "But one model moves it on a path closer to the Carolinas."
It's still possible that it doesn't make it that far. The less-favorable conditions could wipe out the system completely. But if it survives those conditions and continues in the path almost all of the models have predicted, it could strengthen once it heads toward the Bahamas, she said.
This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. Meteorologists say there is a 50 percent chance of development over the next five days and only a 30 percent chance over the next 48 hours.
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